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Beating the Breeders' Cup?... Again!

equidaily.com's 'no-brainer' Breeder's Cup wagering strategy scores again!

The All Over 20-1 Concept wins big at Lone Star
Now known as the BOMBS AWAY PLAY

11/1/04... It was just about one year ago that we here at equidaily.com sat down and researched past Breeders' Cup results in order to come up with perhaps one of the most successful 'no-brainer' wagering strategies ever. We labeled this strategy The All Concept. Simply put, over the five year period ending with 2003 betting on every Breeders' Cup entrant would have produced a positive return in four of those five years. But even more remarkable is the fact that betting ALL entrants in every Breeders' Cup race through the first twenty years would have almost reached the break-even point. A $2 bet on each of the 1577 betting interests would have cost $3154.00 and would have returned $3093.00. That a loss -- after twenty years and 145 races -- of less than 2%. Try that over the next 145 races at your local track and see if you're only 2% behind!

But the results were even more remarkable when we refined our strategy. Realizing that the whole premise was based on the bombs that drop with regularity on Breeders' Cup day we arbitrarily picked a line of demarcation: 20-1. We called this variation The All Over 20-1 Concept and that's when things got interesting:

Year	Betting Interests 20-1 or higher	$2 Win Wager Total	Return	ROI
2003	34	$68.00	$186.60	175%
2002	31	$62.00	$143.00	132%
2001	37	$74.00	$ 0.00	(100%)
2000	41	$82.00	$209.80	155%
1999	41	$82.00	$129.60	58%

4. THE ALL OVER 20-1 CONCEPT (BOMBS AWAY PLAY)
Playing all horses which have odds of 20-1 or higher 1999 - 2003 Breeders' Cup

It's true, in four of the five years ending in 2003 betting every Breeders' Cup entrant that went off at 20-1 or higher produced some remarkable results. The yearly ROI is shown in the chart -- the cumulative ROI over the five-year period was 82%! The chart below shows the results through the first twenty years:

.	Betting Interests 20-1 or higher	$2 Win Wager Total	Return	ROI
All-time 20-1 or higher	613	$1226.00	$1588.20	30%

3. THE ALL OVER 20-1 CONCEPT (BOMBS AWAY PLAY)
Playing all horses which have odds of 20-1 or higher 1984 - 2003 Breeders' Cup

And now for a closer look at the 2004 results...

We ended our study of these results last year by saying, "Is it worth a try in 2004? Well, at the very least it's food for thought..."

Now we know, it was worth a try!

This past Saturday, during the eight Breeders' Cup races at Lone Star there were 32 runners that went off at 20-1 or higher. The 2004 results are in the chart below:

.	Betting Interests 20-1 or higher	$2 Win Wager Total	Return	ROI
2004	32	$64.00	$116.40	82%

3. THE ALL OVER 20-1 CONCEPT (BOMBS AWAY PLAY)
Playing all horses which have odds of 20-1 or higher 2004 Breeders' Cup

Handicapping... Schmandicapping! Studying the PPs is for losers! Well, OK, it might not be that cut-and-dried, but clearly there's something in the air come Breeders' Cup time. What makes The All Over 20-1 Concept work seems to be the simple fact that a longshot on Breeders' Cup day is vastly different than a longshot in a $15K claimer on a Thursday in February at Aqueduct.

For instance, this past Saturday, the 27-1 winner of the BC Turf, Better Talk Now, was a Grade 1 winner just two races prior at Saratoga. The 28-1 winner of the BC Juvie, Wilko was less accomplished but with three Group race placings in Europe he was clearly ahead of that long-price wintertime plater we referred to earlier.

So we'll end this year's review with the same question that we posed in 2003:

Is it worth a try in 2005? You bet! And in recognition of the performance of the refinement to the All Concept that lead to the more prosperous offshoot we're re-naming the All Over 20-1 Concept... The new monicker?

The Bombs Away Play!

Oh, and for the record, yes, the basic All Concept of betting every horse in the Breeders' Cup card scored again. That's eleven out of the past twenty-one years. With 91 runners a $2 bet on each would have cost $182.00 and would have returned $184.00.

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