equidaily.com: OpinionAnecdotally every year we hear about the lucky ones that grabbed one or two scores on the afternoon (or we might be lucky enough to do it ourselves) -- and the nice thing is, that's all it usually takes. One or two nice Breeders' Cup scores can make your day.
But to conquer the card -- and to do it consistently, year after year seems nearly impossible. It's a fun afternoon of very competitive racing, and that adds up to a tough afternoon of handicapping.
However, an exhaustive equidaily.com research effort (well, we spent an hour or so on it anyway) has turned up perhaps the hidden secret to beating the Cup...
Drumroll please... Today we introduce The All Concept.
What is The All Concept? Well, it's perhaps the easiest "system" ever devised to beat the racing game. And yet, amazingly, somehow it works!
Here the scoop: Over the last five years, from 1999 through 2003, betting every horse entered on those five Breeders' Cup cards would have yielded a flat-bet profit!
During those five years there was a total of 478 betting interests in the Breeders' Cup. A $2 win wager on each would have cost $956.00. The return on that investment would have been $1103.40!
Only once during the five year period would The All Concept have failed. That was in 2001 when 94 betting interests would have generated a $2 win wager total of $188.00 and a return of only $136.80. The chart below shows the success of the other four years:
| Year |
Betting Interests |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
ROI |
| 2003 |
90 |
$180.00 |
$264.00 |
47% |
| 2002 |
90 |
$180.00 |
$202.00 |
12% |
| 2001 |
94 |
$188.00 |
$136.00 |
(27%) |
| 2000 |
103 |
$206.00 |
$282.40 |
37% |
| 1999 |
101 |
$202.00 |
$219.00 |
8% |
How does The All Concept stack up historically, you ask? Not bad. Over the past twenty years, since the first Breeders' Cup in 1984 there have been 1577 betting interests. A $2 win wager on each would have cost $3154.00. The return on those bets would have totaled $3093.00. A slight loss -- however, if 74-1 Fran's Valentine was not disqualified from the Juvenile Fillies in 1984 that win total would have rocketed into the black for a total of $3197.00.
| . |
Betting Interests |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
| All-time '84-'03 |
1577 |
$3154.00 |
$3093.00 |
Since clearly The All Concept is dependent on longshots we arbitrarily picked a demarcation line -- in this case 20-1. Then we ran through the findings again to see how The All Concept played out if refined to become The All Over 20-1 Concept. Success!
| . |
Betting Interests 20-1 or higher |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
ROI |
| All-time 20-1 or higher |
613 |
$1226.00 |
$1588.20 |
30% |
And The All Over 20-1 Concept was even more mind-boggling over the last five years:
| Year |
Betting Interests 20-1 or higher |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
ROI |
| 2003 |
34 |
$68.00 |
$186.60 |
175% |
| 2002 |
31 |
$62.00 |
$143.00 |
132% |
| 2001 |
37 |
$74.00 |
$ 0.00 |
(100%) |
| 2000 |
41 |
$82.00 |
$209.80 |
155% |
| 1999 |
41 |
$82.00 |
$129.60 |
58% |
Three of the last four years The All Over 20-1 Concept has produced an ROI of better than 130%. And then of course we have to throw in the year where the system completely crapped-out.
Is it worth a try in 2004?
Well, at the very least it's food for thought...
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