equidaily.com: OpinionThree years ago we labeled this idea The All Concept. Simply put, over the five year period ending with 2003 betting on every Breeders' Cup entrant would have produced a positive return in four of those five years. But even more remarkable was the fact that betting ALL entrants in every Breeders' Cup race through the first twenty years would have almost reached the break-even point. That trend is hanging tough two years later with an overall ROI loss of just 2% -- and we have to note that if 74-1 Fran's Valentine was not DQ'd from the Juvie Fillies in 1984 that win total would have rocketed into the black.
| . |
Betting Interests |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
| All-time '84-'05 |
1768 |
$3536.00 |
$3456.00 |
| . |
Betting Interests 20-1 or higher |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
ROI |
| All-time 20-1 or higher |
682 |
$1364.00 |
$1768.10 |
30% |
The chart below shows the results for each Breeders' Cup. Certainly The Bombs Away Play has had its down years -- but overall it has resulted in a profit as often as not, scoring in eleven of the past twenty years. And perhaps more importantly, since 1999 Bombers have walked away happy five of those seven years.
With the 2006 Breeders' Cup being run at Churchill Downs it makes sense to take a closer look at how The Bombs Away Play has fared during the five previous BC visits to that track. As highlighted in the chart below the results are a mixed bag -- with the plays totally wiping out in '88 and '98 but coming through with flying colors in '91, '94, and 2000.
| Year |
Betting Interests 20-1 or higher |
$2 Win Wager Total |
Return |
ROI |
| 2005 Belmont |
37 |
$74.00 |
$63.50 |
(14%) |
| 2004 Lone Star |
32 |
$64.00 |
$116.40 |
82% |
| 2003 Santa Anita |
34 |
$68.00 |
$186.60 |
175% |
| 2002 Arlington |
31 |
$62.00 |
$143.00 |
132% |
| 2001 Belmont |
37 |
$74.00 |
$ 0.00 |
(100%) |
| 2000 Churchill |
41 |
$82.00 |
$209.80 |
155% |
| 1999 Gulfstream |
41 |
$82.00 |
$129.60 |
58% |
| 1998 Churchill |
29 |
$58.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1997 Hollywood |
24 |
$48.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1996 Woodbine |
27 |
$54.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1995 Belmont |
20 |
$40.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1994 Churchill |
31 |
$62.00 |
$96.20 |
55% |
| 1993 Santa Anita |
30 |
$60.00 |
$269.20 |
349% |
| 1992 Gulfstream |
33 |
$66.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1991 Churchill |
36 |
$72.00 |
$196.20 |
172% |
| 1990 Belmont |
36 |
$72.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1989 Gulfstream |
27 |
$54.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1988 Churchill |
17 |
$34.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1987 Hollywood |
31 |
$62.00 |
$62.80 |
1% |
| 1986 Santa Anita |
33 |
$66.00 |
$73.80 |
11% |
| 1985 Aqueduct |
28 |
$56.00 |
$0.00 |
(100%) |
| 1984 Hollywood |
27 |
$54.00 |
$221.00 |
309% |
There are no guarantees, but The Bombs Away Play has scored 50% all-time and far, far more often in the 21st century. So if you're looking to take a shot on Saturday -- hey, go for it!
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