Equidaily Racing Journal

Coast-to-coast

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RESULTS
Saturday, May 13, 2006
Picks and plays for some of the day's major stakes
by Seth Merrow

These are the kind of days that make it all worthwhile! Typically our wagering results play out in perhaps a bell curve fashion over the long haul -- with most Coast-to-coast weekends offering up some worthwhile action -- some days better than others. But on the far end of that curve are the seldom -- but every so often -- down days, when nothing seems to go right. However, the opposite side of the bell offers up days like this week -- when the selections, the odds, and the results combine for a huge, fun score.

Clearly the highlight of the afternoon was the Open Mind at Churchill. Our top selection, the even-money fave Serena's Cat, offered up little and finished eighth of ten. But our three others combined for the boxed exacta and tri at odds of 19-1, 8-1, and 7-2. The exacta paid $365.80/$2 and the tri $2768.80/$2. We grabbed a little more in each of the three SoCal stakes -- but the Churchill score was enough to make it a big, big afternoon.

Besides that we also managed to put together a nice day in the Best Bets section which allowed us to move the 2006 total in that area into positive territory (more on that below).

Regular readers certainly are aware that after getting off to a slow start, the 2006 Coast-to-coast season has swung into high gear since late March.

WAGERED: $222.00
COLLECTED: $1669.30


Turf wagers are turf only

Best Bets

Best Bets 2006 Total Return [thru 5/13]
Month-by-month recap at bottom of this page
Total plays Total $2 return Total Return ROI
115 237.60 3%

WE move into positive territory... If you've been following the Best Bets you know that we were treading water early this year and things have turned around nicely since late March -- culminating in a good return this week which finally moved us into the black for the year. You can follow the month-by-month progress at the bottom of the page.

This week was a lot of fun as we clicked in four of eight contests -- with the highlight being the nice 8-1 first-time starter coming through for us in the Churchill nightcap. Our two second-place finshers both might have been best but were left with a little too much to do late. On the flip side -- Ellerton was a nail-biter, just getting up in the shadow of the wire. All totalled up -- an 85% ROI on the day.

Belmont, Race 1, Touchdown Kid... WON (3.20, 2.50, 2.40).
Belmont, Race 3, Afrashad... Scratched.
Belmont, Race 9, Benlayla... 2nd at 9-5 (xxx, 3.20, 2.60).
Monmouth, Race 4, Jumpstarter... 4th at 4-1.
Monmouth, Race 7, Ellerton... WON (4.20, 3.20, 3.20).
Calder, Race 2, Master William... 7th at 7-5.
Churchill, Race 1, Elite Mercedes... WON (4.00, 2.60, 2.20).
Churchill, Race 11, Siberian Lily... WON (18.20, 6.40, 4.80).
Hollywood, Race 4, Thunderfog... 2nd at 7-5 (xxx, 3.40, 2.80).


Head-to-Head

Our Head-to-Head feature pits Coast-to-Coast's Seth Merrow against DRF's Weekend Warrior, Mike Watchmaker. Whenever the two columns make selections in the same race we'll tally the results for each.

This week's matchup races Seth Merrow/Equidaily.com's Coast-to-coast Mike Watchmaker/DRF's Weekend Warrior
Lone Star: LS Derby 3rd at 4-1/Admiral's Arch 3rd at 4-1/Admiral's Arch
Hollywood: Murray Mem WON at 3-5/Grey Swallow [3.20] WON at 3-5/Grey Swallow [3.20]
Hollywood: LA Hcp 2nd at 9-5/Areyoutalkintome 8th at 3-1/Thunder Touch
This Week 3-1-1-1 3-1-0-1
YTD/win mutuel 48-13-7-5, $88.10 48-5-7-9, $40.30
(Head-to-Head results above are only for those races which were common to both columns. Weekend Warrior might have tabbed other races not reflected in the results above.)

Belmont: Bold Ruler Hcp G3 $100K

Tiger 3-2*
Dark Cheetah 5-1
Bishop Court Hill 2-1

Wager: $5 exacta Tiger over Pisgah.
Ran 1/5.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-5.

Tiger...Has returned to the races much improved. Last was best yet and looks to set him up for his stakes debut.
Pisgah...Also tossed in his best career effort last time and a repeat would make him tough.
Bishop Court Hill...Another that seems in career-best form. Took a G1 last time.


Churchill: Open Mind $100K

More Than Pretty 19-1
Handlewoman 8-1
Bratt'sstablestar 7-2

Wager: $5 WP on Serena's Cat.
Ran 8th at 1-1*.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 2-8.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $182.90 on the ex box ($365.80/$2).
...$1 tri box top four.
Collected $1384.40 on the tri box ($2768.80/$2).

Serena's Cat...Undefeated since moving to turf for Mott.
Handlewoman...Tough post but might take to turf. Makes third lifetime start and looks ready to improve.
More Than Pretty...With More Than Ready on top she might appreciate the grass.
Bratt'sstablestar.


Lone Star: Lone Star Derby G3 $300K

Wanna Runner 1-2*
Wait in Line 46-1
Admiral's Arch 4-1

Wager: $5 WP on Admiral's Arch.
Ran 3rd.
...$2 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$1 exacta box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-3-4-6.

Admiral's Arch...Looks to be an improving 3YO for Asmussen and won stakes debut in latest.
Wanna Runner...Ran best yet last time when allowed to escape SoCal competition.
Red Raymond...Think he's better than he showed in Ark Derby flop.
Mr Pursuit.


Hollywood: Mervyn LeRoy Hcp G2 $150K

Surf Cat 1-5*
Spellbinder 4-1
Dixie Meister 7-1

Timias scratched.

Wager: $5 W on Surf Cat.
Collected $6.00 on the W ($2.40).
...$10 exacta Surf Cat over Dixie Meister.
Ran 1/3.
...$5 exacta box top two.
Ran 1-3.
...$2 exacta Surf Cat over Spellbinder.
Collected $5.20 on the exacta ($5.20/$2).
...$1 tri key Surf Cat over next three.
Collected $5.00 on the tri box ($10.00/$2).

Surf Cat...Third start of season and stretching off of two sprint stakes wins.
Dixie Meister...Seems to be improved as a 4YO. Nice second to Brass Hat three back.
Spellbinder...Overmatched?... Not his distance?... Not sure what went wrong but the dud last time looks like a toss. Expect better today.
Timias.


Hollywood: Jim Murray Memorial Hcp G2 $250K

Grey Swallow 3-5*
Brecon Beacon 7-1
Runaway Dancer 6-1

King's Drama, Macduff scratched.

Wager: $5 WP on Grey Swallow.
Collected $14.50 on the WP ($3.20, 2.60).
...$2 exacta box top two, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-5.
...$1 exacta box top four, sub next if scratch.
Collected $7.10 on the ex box ($14.20/$2).
...$1 tri key Grey Swallow over next three, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1/2-5.
...$1 tri box top four, sub next if scratch.
Ran 1-2-5.

Grey Swallow...Long layoff but the Euros don't seem to mind that. Top trainer comes across the pond and looking at the PPs and seeing names like Oratorio, Azamour, and Bago indicates this one is the real deal.
King's Drama...Frankel turfer is a G1 winner and is typically in the hunt.
One Off...Looks to be rounding into good form.
Macduff.
Brecon Beacon.


Hollywood: LA Times Hcp G3 $100K

Siren Lure 5-1
Areyoutalkintome 9-5*
Prorunner 28-1

Wager: $5 WP on Areyoutalkintome.
Collected $9.00 on the WP (xxx, 3.60).
...$2 exacta box top two.
Collected $36.80 on the ex box ($36.80/$2).
...$1 exacta box top four.
Collected $18.40 on the ex box.
...$1 tri box top four.
Ran 1-2-5-8.

Areyoutalkintome...Looks to -- perhaps -- have a pace advantage here. Might sneak away early and let's hope P Val can nurse him home.
Siren Lure...Will be running late. Goes turf-to-dirt and trainer is 24% in that category.
Thunder Touch...Off since November and now in a new barn. Might need one -- but working well and if able to fire his best shot he'll be tough.
Cigar Pal.



BEST BETS 2006 Monthly Recap

MAY 2006 [partial]

May Totals [thru 5/13]
Races played Win/Place/Show $2 Win return $2 Win ROI $2 Place return
12 4-4-0 29.60 23% 49.70

Additional plays Type $2 return . .
1 Place 28.40
1 Show 15.40

Total plays . Total $2 return Total Return ROI
14 . 73.40 162% .
APRIL 2006

April Totals
Races played Win/Place/Show $2 Win return $2 Win ROI $2 Place return
27 14-5-0 85.40 58% 83.30

MARCH 2006

March Totals
Races played Win/Place/Show $2 Win return $2 Win ROI $2 Place return
30 6-3-8 36.70 <39%> 37.60

FEBRUARY 2006

February Totals
Races played Win/Place/Show $2 Win return $2 Win ROI $2 Place return
21 4-2-1 23.60 <44%> 23.80

JANUARY 2006

January Totals
Races played Win/Place/Show $2 Win return $2 Win ROI $2 Place return
20 3-2-3 18.80 <53%> 14.40

Additional plays Type $2 return . .
1 Place 0.00
1 Show 0.00
1 Exacta 0.00

Total plays . Total $2 return Total Return ROI
23 . 18.80 <59%> .
Races played... The number of horses we named as Best Bets.
Win/Place/Show... Totals for how our Best Bets eventually finished.
$2 Win return... The total return if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Win ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Place return... The total return if a $2 place wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
......Note: "$2 Place return" is for information only and was not used in any of the "Total ROI" calculations.

Additional Plays... Occasionally we offer up something other than a straight "win" play.
Type... Exacta/Place/Show/Etc... Defines the type of "other" plays we made.
$2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was placed on the particular "additional play" listed.

Total plays... Total of all plays listed in Best Bets including straight win as well as "additional plays".
Total $2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".
Total return ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".


Coast-to-coast Archives...Picks, plays and results from previous weeks

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