Best Bets: Archive

We introduced the Best Bets feature on our weekly Coast-to-coast page on New Year's Day 2005 and said this:

And we start a new feature with the new year: The Coast-To-Coast Best Bet. We can, of course, keep a scorecard of all of our C2C picks -- and we do. But, in much the same way we look at all races every day of the Saratoga meet, Coast-to-coast is also a "forced" look at races, if you will. In other words, we're not "cherry-picking" races, but rather looking at whatever the major stakes races are on a particular Saturday afternoon.

So in order to make a more interesting -- and perhaps more pertinent -- handicapping scorecard, each week we'll pick one or more Best Bets. They might feature stakes races from the C2C selections -- or we might look at some of the non-stake races from around the country. But every week we'll find at least one horse to label our Best Bet. And we'll keep a running tally on how those Best Bets do...

Typically our Best Bets are simple "top horse" picks meant to be scored as winners on top. However, from time-to-time we find other interesting plays and they are so noted (ex, WPS, exacta, etc) when they are first listed and they are also distinguished on our scorecard below.

As Coast-to-coast and its' Best Bets feature go on hiatus during the Saratoga race meet, it's a good time to reflect back on the year so far. And what a year it's been!

With 37 winners in 118 races we're clicking at a 31% hit-rate (67% in-the-money). Those wins have been good for a phenomenal 55% ROI in the win-only category. Adding in the few "other" wagers we posted our ROI jumps to an incredible 78% through the first seven months of the year.

Again, as we did with our six-month review, we're more than happy to re-calculate after subtracting the huge win price we grabbed in this year's Kentucky Derby. We don't want anyone thinking that without the generous $102.60 we earned with Giacomo that we would sink below the break-even point.

Quite the contrary, even if we subtract that $102.60 from our win totals we still clock in at a very decent 13% ROI.

And now it's on to Saratoga where we'll use this momentum to try to again "beat the meet" with our daily, full-card selections. Join us for that exciting six-week meet and we'll see you back on the Coast-to-coast page with our Best Bets on Sept 11.

Races played... The number of horses we named as Best Bets.
Win/Place/Show... Totals for how our Best Bets eventually finished.
$2 Win return... The total return if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Win ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Place return... The total return if a $2 place wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
......Note: "$2 Place return" is for information only and was not used in any of the "Total ROI" calculations.

Additional Plays... Occasionally we offer up something other than a straight "win" play.
Type... Exacta/Place/Show/Etc... Defines the type of "other" plays we made.
$2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was placed on the particular "additional play" listed.

Total plays... Total of all plays listed in Best Bets including straight win as well as "additional plays".
Total $2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".
Total return ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".

Belmont, Race 9, Pollard's Vision... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 8, Souris... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.20, 2.10).
Churchill, Race 9, Shaconage... 2nd at 5-2 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Arlington, Race 9, Purim... WON (8.20, 5.40, 4.40).
Thistledown, Race 11, Unbridled Energy... 8th at 3-1.
Hollywood, Race 7, My Dream... 2nd at 9-5 (xxx, 3.00, 2.40).

7/9/05

Belmont, Race 8, Burnish... 7th at 2-1.
Monmouth, Race 9, Capeside Lady... WON (5.00, 3.00, 2.40).
Churchill, Race 7, Victoire Bataille... 2nd at 1-1 (xxx, 3.00, 2.40).
Hollywood, Race 6, Pink Coral... WON moved up from 2nd on DQ (9.40, 5.60, 3.40).
Hollywood, Race 7, Surf Cat... WON (5.40, 3.60, 3.00).
Hollywood, Race 8, Borrego... 2nd at 7-1 (xxx, 7.40, 4.40).

7/16/05

Monmouth, Race 8, Saint Stephen... Scratched.
Monmouth, Race 9, First Word... 7th at 5-1.
Colonial Downs, Race 7, Rich in Spirit... 3rd at 7-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Colonial Downs, Race 8, Stupendous Miss... WON (5.20, 4.20, 3.40).
Colonial Downs, Race 9, Rey de Cafe... 9th at 7-1.

7/23/05

Belmont, Race 8, Smuggler... WON (6.90, 3.30, 2.20).
Monmouth, Race 2, Blackfeet... WON (3.80, 2.60, 2.40).
Monmouth, Race 10, Why Not Today... 8th at 9-5.
Arlington, Race 5, Gun Salute... WON (9.40, 3.40, 2.80).
Arlington, Race 7, Artiste Royal... 6th at 7-2.
Arlington, Race 9, Shaconage... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.60, 2.10).

We now have six months of Best Bet plays under our belt and it seems like a good time to take a moment to reflect and see how well we have done with our little experiment. And at this point we can only label the results a resounding success.

The complete scorecard -- with monthly totals and week-by-week archive -- is listed below, but to briefly sum up:

We listed 99 total plays (96 horses to play in the win position plus three "additional" plays) and managed a phenomenal 91% ROI! Looking strictly at our "win" plays we still had an incredible 63% ROI.

Scrolling down to the month of May you'll see Giacomo was listed among our plays -- and being a typical horse-player I'm as skeptical as the rest, so I know folks will look at that gaudy $100+ win mutuel and wonder if we still would have landed in the black without it. Well, certainly a score that big will affect the final numbers significantly, but even if we remove the Giacomo play from our scorecard we hold our own with a very respectable 11% ROI in the win category.

Looking at our win and in-the-money numbers for those 96 Best Bets, we ended up picking winners at over 30% while our selections wound up in-the-money at a 66% rate.

Overall then we can only feel extremely pleased with the results thus far and we look forward to continuing Best Bets and hope to maintain our current level of success...

Belmont, Race 9, Rove... Moved to main track. No play.
Monmouth, Race 7, Aesculus... Moved to main track. No play.
Delaware, Race 8, Omeya/Spring Season... Moved to main track. No play.

6/11/05

Belmont, Race 4, Storm Minstrel... Scratched.
Belmont, Race 10, America Alive... 8th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 11, Giacomo... 7th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 12, Smart Growth... Scratched.
Monmouth, Race 10, Cacht Wells... 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 9, Atlas Valley... 4th at 9-2.

6/18/05

Churchill, Race 3, Don'tcussthefiddle... 12th at 8-1
Churchill, Race 6, Gun Salute... 3rd at 8-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Churchill, Race 8, Rich in Spirit... WON (6.40, 3.20, 2.40).
Hollywood, Race 7, Me My Mine... WON (7.40, 4.40, 2.80).

6/25/05

Belmont, Race 9, Aaron's Classic... 2nd @ 8-5 (xxx, 3.80, 3.20)
Monmouth, Race 4, Dowry... WON (5.40, 3.40, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 3, Storm Thief... 4th at 8-5.
Churchill, Race 6, Key West Breeze... WON (3.60, 2.60, 2.20).
Churchill, Race 7, General Jumbo... 3rd at 2-1.
Delaware, Race 8, Seeking Slew... WON (14.80, 5.20, 4.80).
Colonial, Race 10, Classic Campaign... 4th at 9-2.
Hollywood, Race 4, Movie Buff... 4th at 3-1.

Churchill, Race 6, Dance Daily... 5th at 4-1
Churchill, Race 9, America Alive... WON (37.60, 13.60, 7.60).
Churchill, Race 10, Afleet Alex... 3rd at 9-2 (xxx, xxx, 4.60)
Churchill, Race 10, WPS on Giacomo.... WON (102.60, 45.80, 19.80).
Hollywood, Race 8, Quero Quero... 7th at 9-2

5/14/05

Belmont, Race 8, Forty Moves... 4th at 10-1.
Monmouth, Race 4, Nophone... 8th at 9-2.
Monmouth, Race 9, L Argento... 8th at 7-2.
Lone Star, Race 9, Shamoan... 2nd at 19-1 (xxx, 16.60, 9.20).
Hollywood, Race 6, Deputy Lad... 8th at 7-1.

5/21/05

Belmont, Race 7, Beautiful Bay... WON (8.00, 4.70, 3.90).
Belmont, Race 9, Landslide... 3rd at 6-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.40).
Delaware, Race 8, Fortress Hill... 2nd at 6-5 (xxx, 3.60, 2.40).
Pimlico, Race 12, Giacomo... 3rd at 6-1 (xxx, xxx, 4.80).

5/28/05

Calder, Race 7, Lord Robyn... 4th at 8-5.
Hollywood, Race 6, Nyramba... 6th at 3-1.
Hollywood, Race 8, Sunny Sky... 6th at 8-1.

Gulfstream, Race 11, Unigold... 7th at 5-1.
Gulfstream, Race 13, Full Flow... 2nd at 2-1 (xxx, 3.60, 2.80).
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 7, Cullen... 3rd @ 6-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.40).
Oaklawn, Race 10, Savorthetime... WON (2.60, 2.20, 2.20).

4/9/05

Keeneland, Race 1, Hasslefree... 2nd at 5-2 (xxx, 3.80, 3.40).
Keeneland, Race 9, Letgomyecho... 5th at 9-2.
Keeneland, Race 10, On the Acorn... WON (8.00, 4.40, 3.20).
Aqueduct, Race 9, Survivalist... 2nd at 5-1 (xxx, 6.10, 5.00).
Santa Anita, Race 6, Giacomo... 4th at 7-2.

4/16/05

Keeneland, Race 9, Bandini... WON (8.00, 3.80, 3.20).
Santa Anita 2. Shamoan... 3rd at 6-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).

4/23/05

Keeneland, Race 9, Coin Silver... WON (28.80, 10.00, 5.60).
Keeneland, Race 10, Argento... Scratched.
Pimlico, Race 8, Byanosejoe... 3rd at 3-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Bay Meadows, Race 7, Castledale... WON (5.00, 3.20, 2.60).
Hollywood, Race 8, Mea Domina... 4th at 1-1.

4/30/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Survivalist... 5th at 3-1.
Churchill, Race 6, Sagitta Ra... 3rd at 3-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).
Churchill, Race 9, McKee's Gallery... 8th at 7-2.
Churchill, Race 11, Vicarage... 3rd at 2-1.
Calder, Race 11, Wend... WON (3.40, 3.00, 2.40).

Laurel, Race 10, Distinctive Trick... 2nd at 2-1 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Mr Sulu... WON (4.80, 3.20, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 10, Betnow... WON (3.40, 2.10, 2.10).
Gulfstream, Race 12, Holy Panache... Scratched.

3/12/05

Fair Grounds, Race 2, Mr Malaprop... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.20).
Fair Grounds, Race 6, Vicarage... 2nd at 21-1 (xxx, 16.80, 9.80).
Santa Anita, Race 3, Memorette... Scratched.

3/19/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Alfonsina... Ran 3rd at 1-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Tampa Bay Race 9, Snowdrops... Ran 4th @ 3-5.
Tampa Bay, Race 10, Sun King... WON... (2.10, 2.10, 2.10).
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Crimson Stag... 8th at 1-1
Santa Anita, Race 5, Shamoan... 3rd at 20-1 (xxx, xxx, 9.60)

3/26/05

Gulfstream, Race 6, Exacta -- Isola Piu Bella over Pampered Princess... Ran 2-3.
Gulfstream, Race 10, Tadreeb... 2nd by a nose at 4-5 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
Turfway, Race 9, Magna Graduate... 4th at 5-1.
Fair Grounds, Race 8, Volobee... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 3.00).
Santa Anita, Race 9, High Standards... WON (6.40, 3.80, 2.60).

Aqueduct, Race 8, Bank Audit... 2nd at 1-2 (xxx, 2.60, 2.10).
Gulfstream, Race 5, Devil At Sea... 5th at 5-1
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Flagler... 4th at 5-1.
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Souris... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.10).

2/12/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Naughty New Yorker... 2nd at 7-2 (xxx, 5.00, 4.80)
Gulfstream, Race 10, Angela's Love... 2nd @ 2-1 (xxx, 3.80, 3.00)
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Enduring Will... 3rd @ 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60)

2/19/05

Gulfstream, Race 11, Baena... Ran 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Prince of a Deal... Race moved off turf.
Fair Grounds, Race 9, May Gator... Ran 6th at 9-2.

2/26/05

Tampa, Race 8, Delta Princess... WON (6.40, 3.80, 2.80)
Tampa, Race 10, Andromeda's Hero... WON (5.60, 3.60, 2.80)
Oaklawn, Race 9, Souris... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.20)

Calder, Race 9, Exceptional Ride... Ran 9th at 2-1
Calder, Race 10, Dansetta Light... WON (6.60, 3.00, 2.20)

1/8/05

Gulfstream, Race 3, Hold a Moonbeam... Ran 9th at 9-2.
Gulfstream, Race 5, Devil At Sea... Ran 2nd by a half at 9-1 (xxx, 8.00, 7.00).
Pimlico, Race 8, Maysville... Won but DQ'd to 2nd at 7-5 (xxx, 3.20, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 8, Crimson Stag... WON at 4-5 (3.80, 2.80, 2.10)

1/15/05

Gulfstream, Race 9, Mogador... Scratched. Off turf.
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Punch Appeal... Ran 3rd at 2-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).
Fair Grounds, Race 8, America Alive... WON (8.20, 4.20, 3.20).
Santa Anita, Race 7, Imperialism... Ran 4th at 5-2.
Santa Anita, Race 8, Chattahoochee War... WON (5.00, 3.40, 2.60).

1/22/05

Gulfstream, Race 8, Mogador... 2nd by a neck at 4-5 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
Fair Grounds, Race 5, Chauffe Au Rouge... 2nd by a nose at 3-1 (xxx, 3.40, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Shadow Cast... WON (5.20, 3.20, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 5, Hortense... Ran 2nd by 1 1/2 at 3-2 (xxx, 2.80, 2.60).

1/29/05

Laurel, Race 10, Silmaril... WON (3.60, 2.60, 2.20).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Cape Hope... Scratched.
Santa Anita, Race 5, Silver Tree... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 6, Yearly Report... 6th at 4-5.

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