Best Bets: 2005 Archive

Typically our Best Bets are simple "top horse" picks meant to be scored as winners on top. However, from time-to-time we find other interesting plays and they are so noted (ex, WPS, exacta, etc) when they are first listed and they are also distinguished on our scorecard below.

We wanted to put ourselves to the test -- and starting on Jan 1, 2005 we did just that, adding a weekly Best Bets feature to our Coast-to-coast page. This allowed us to pick races and horses that particularly appealed to us.

Horseplayers are a skeptical bunch -- they often seem native to Missouri (the "Show Me State"). Frankly, we don't blame them. Results matter. And, for the most part, when the results come in and turn out to be positive, the fraternity of horseplayers will recognize the accomplishment with appropriate respect. As such we'd like to thank the folks who have kept track of our results and emailed congratulations after last Saturday's big season-ending afternoon.

The Dec 31 score that returned a phenomenal 115% ROI was the perfect bookend to a 2005 season that was kicked off on Jan 1 with a 65% ROI. In between there were enough fireworks to allow us to end the year with an incredible overall ROI of 43%!

In the win-only category we had 202 Best Bets and scored with 58 winners for a hit-rate of 29%. Our picks were in-the-money 63% of the time.

Our win-only ROI was a solid 30%. And, as we did back in our six-month results review, we're more than happy to acknowledge that our play on the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby, 50-1 Giacomo, played a big part in helping us to rack up the eye-popping numbers this year. And, as we did in that six-month review, we're again more than happy to subtract out that big score in order to see if we still maintained decent numbers and didn't just "luck out" based on one "fluke" win.

So, subtracting the $102.60 that Giacomo paid from our $525.00 win-only total, we're left with $422.40. That's still good for a respectable 5% ROI on the year.

Together with our three straight years of maintaining a positive ROI with our daily, full-card handicapping of the Saratoga meet, this 2005 Best Bets achievement is something we're quite proud of -- and we hope you appreciate the effort.

Races played... The number of horses we named as Best Bets.
Win/Place/Show... Totals for how our Best Bets eventually finished.
$2 Win return... The total return if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Win ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 win wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
$2 Place return... The total return if a $2 place wager had been placed on each Best Bet.
......Note: "$2 Place return" is for information only and was not used in any of the "Total ROI" calculations.

Additional Plays... Occasionally we offer up something other than a straight "win" play.
Type... Exacta/Place/Show/Etc... Defines the type of "other" plays we made.
$2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was placed on the particular "additional play" listed.

Total plays... Total of all plays listed in Best Bets including straight win as well as "additional plays".
Total $2 return... The total return if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".
Total return ROI... The Return-on-Investment if a $2 wager was made on all the plays listed including straight win and "additional plays".

Calder, Race 6, Husker Nation... 7th at 6-1.
Calder, Race 10, Silver Tree... WON (4.60, 3.40, 2.60).
FG @ La Downs, Race 1, Glitter Queen... WON (2.60, 2.20, 2.10).
FG @ La Downs, Race 9, Southern Surprise... 4th at 5-2.
Hollywood, Race 2, Fly to the Wire... 2nd at 2-5 (xxx, 2.20, 2.10).

12/10/05

Calder, Race 8, Ocean Beauty... 5th at 36-1.
Calder, Race 11, Yankee Master... 2nd at 3-5 (xxx, 2.60, 2.10).
Calder, Race 12, Seventhavenuegolda... 5th at 4-5.
Laurel, Race 4, Bondage... WON at 4-5... Dead-heat (2.80, 2.60, 2.10).
Tampa, Race 5, Thunder Again... Off-turf... WON (3.00, 2.40, 2.10).
FG @ La Downs, Race 4, Leestown Light... 4th at 14-1.
FG @ La Downs, Race 7, Barton Creek... 7th at 15-1.

12/17/05

Calder, Race 10, Dazzling Dr Cevin... 6th at 9-2.
Tampa, Race 5, Gingivere... 4th At 9-5.
Tampa, Race 11, Sell to Survive... 4th at 4-1.
FG @ La Downs, Race 1, Big Courage... 3rd at 4-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
FG @ La Downs, Race 7, Intractabie... 2nd at 7-2 (xxx, 5.20, 3.20).
FG @ La Downs, Race 9, May Gator... Off the turf.
Hollywood, Race 8, AP Warrior... 4th at 2-1.

12/24/05

Calder, Race 2, King Cassia... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.40, 2.10).
Calder, Race 6, Primetime Princess... 4th at 3-1.
Calder, Race 8, Prized Light... 11th at 8-1
Calder, Race 11, Super Reviewer... WON (12.00, 5.00, 3.20).
FG @ La Downs, Race 1, Six Iron... WON (4.40, 2.80, 2.60).
FG @ La Downs, Race 5, Run to the Border... Off turf. Scratched.
FG @ La Downs, Race 8, Tisket a Tasket... Off turf. 2nd at 1-1.

12/31/05

Tampa, Race 5, Seek to Soar... WON (3.00, 2.40, 2.10).
Tampa, Race 10, Running Lass... 3rd at 14-1 (xxx, xxx, 7.20).
FG @ La Downs, Race 7, Danseur's Gold... 2nd at 3-2 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
FG @ La Downs, Race 9, Enduring Will... 5th at 3-5.
Calder, Race 4, Handsome Smile... 2nd at 9-5 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Calder, Race 7, Yes He's the Man... WON (19.20, 7.60, 5.60).
Laurel, Race 6, Take a Check... 3rd at 3-2 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).
Laurel, Race 7, Cantora... 8th at 7-2.
Santa Anita, Race 2, Quiet Kim... 2nd at 9-5 (xxx, 2.60, 2.20).
Santa Anita, Race 5, Gone Cattin... WON (20.80, 8.40, 4.60).

Churchill, Race 3, Trieste's Song... 6th at 3-1.
Churchill, Race 8, Performing Diva... 6th at 3-1
Santa Anita/Oak Tree, Race 7, Seapoint... 3rd at 8-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Meadowlands, Race 6, Affirmative Action... 4th at 2-1.

11/12/05

Calder, Race 6, Bond Queen... Scratched.
Calder, Race 8, Special Report... 2nd at 5-2 (xxx, 4.40, 4.20).
Calder, Race 11, Bob's Proud Moment... 7th at 27-1.
Churchill, Race 5, Warrior Song... WON (4.60, 2.80, 2.40).
Meadowlands, Race 4, Sovereign Kit... WON (5.80, 3.80, 2.80).

11/19/05

Aqueduct, Race 7, Oonagh Maccool... 6th at 3-2.
Laurel, Race 6, Barbaro... WON (7.60, 4.60, 6.40).
Laurel, Race 7, Moon Dazzle... 3rd at 7-2 (xxx, xxx, 3.80).
Laurel, Race 9, Battle Chant... 10th at 2-1.
Churchill, Race 6, Dyna's Destiny... 4th at 8-5.

11/26/05

Churchill, Race 8, Mythical Conquest... 7th at 7-5
Churchill, Race 9, French Park... WON (5.40, 3.00, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 11, Private Vow... WON (3.40, 2.40, 2.20).
Calder, Race 10, French Charmer... 4th at 8-5.

Belmont, Race 3, Treated Wood... 8th at 8-1.
Belmont, Race 6, Silver Wagon... 4th - entrymate 2nd at 9-2 (xxx, 6.40, 3.40).
Belmont, Race 9, Borrego... WON (10.60, 5.00, 4.20).
Louisiana Downs, Race 8, Smokescreen... 5th at 7-2.
Santa Anita, Race 3, Geronimo... 2nd at 3-1 (xxx, 4.00, 3.00).

10/8/05

Belmont, Race 8, Catch My Fancy... 5th at 4-1.
Keeneland, Race 4, Cintarosa... 3rd at 7-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Keeneland, Race 8, Stream Cat... 3rd at 7-2 (xxx, xxx, 4.20).
Santa Anita, Race 7, We All Love Aleyna... 4th at 2-1

10/15/05

Calder, Race 5, Reason to Rejoice... 10th at 7-2
Calder, Race 10, Mystery Girl... 4th at 5-2.
Calder, Race 11, Blazing Rate... WON (9.40, 3.80, 3.00).
Keeneland, Race 9, Gorella... 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 3.20).
Hawthorne, Race 9, Isla Cozzene... WON (4.20, 3.00, 2.20).

10/22/05

Belmont, Race 7, Lady Bi Bi... 9th at 11-1.
Keeneland, Race 3, Safe Play... WON (3.40, 2.40, 2.20).
Golden Gate, Race 8, Adreamisborn... WON (4.00, 2.40, 2.10).

10/29/05

Belmont, Race 7, WPS on Gorella... 3rd at 13-1 (xxx, xx, 6.00).
Belmont, Race 8, Sweet Symphony... 9th at 7-1.
Belmont, Race 9, Bago... 4th at 9-2.
Belmont, Race 9, WPS on Forty Niners Son... 9th at 10-1.
Belmont, Race 10, Borrego... 10th at 5-2.

Belmont, Race 9, Bright Abundance... WON (15.60, 6.40, 4.20).
Monmouth, Race 9, What's Your Edge... WON (9.80, 3.20, 3.00).
Calder, Race 10, Blazing Rate... WON (5.60, 3.60, 3.60).
Kentucky Downs, Race 14, Rayon... Ran 4th at 7-1.
Fairplex, Race 12, Chummin... Ran 2nd at 4-1 (xxx, 4.80, 3.60).

9/17/05

Belmont, Race 8, Along the Sea... 3rd at 16-1 (xxx, xxx, 5.60).
Monmouth, Race 8, Summer Sting... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.40, 2.20).
Monmouth, Race 9, Upturn... 2nd @ 9-5 (xxx, 3.40, 3.00).
Laurel, Race 8, Funfair... Scratched.
Arlington, Race 8, Singhalese... 2nd @ 1-2 (xxx, 2.20, 2.10).

9/10/05

Belmont, Race 9, Relaxed Gesture... 3rd at 3-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.50).
Belmont, Race 10, Stephanootz... 3rd at 4-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.30).
Finger Lakes, Race 7, So Sweet a Cat... 4th at 4-5.
Delaware, Race 7, Separato... 2nd at 3-2 (xxx, 3.00, 2.10).

Belmont, Race 9, Pollard's Vision... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 8, Souris... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.20, 2.10).
Churchill, Race 9, Shaconage... 2nd at 5-2 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Arlington, Race 9, Purim... WON (8.20, 5.40, 4.40).
Thistledown, Race 11, Unbridled Energy... 8th at 3-1.
Hollywood, Race 7, My Dream... 2nd at 9-5 (xxx, 3.00, 2.40).

7/9/05

Belmont, Race 8, Burnish... 7th at 2-1.
Monmouth, Race 9, Capeside Lady... WON (5.00, 3.00, 2.40).
Churchill, Race 7, Victoire Bataille... 2nd at 1-1 (xxx, 3.00, 2.40).
Hollywood, Race 6, Pink Coral... WON moved up from 2nd on DQ (9.40, 5.60, 3.40).
Hollywood, Race 7, Surf Cat... WON (5.40, 3.60, 3.00).
Hollywood, Race 8, Borrego... 2nd at 7-1 (xxx, 7.40, 4.40).

7/16/05

Monmouth, Race 8, Saint Stephen... Scratched.
Monmouth, Race 9, First Word... 7th at 5-1.
Colonial Downs, Race 7, Rich in Spirit... 3rd at 7-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Colonial Downs, Race 8, Stupendous Miss... WON (5.20, 4.20, 3.40).
Colonial Downs, Race 9, Rey de Cafe... 9th at 7-1.

7/23/05

Belmont, Race 8, Smuggler... WON (6.90, 3.30, 2.20).
Monmouth, Race 2, Blackfeet... WON (3.80, 2.60, 2.40).
Monmouth, Race 10, Why Not Today... 8th at 9-5.
Arlington, Race 5, Gun Salute... WON (9.40, 3.40, 2.80).
Arlington, Race 7, Artiste Royal... 6th at 7-2.
Arlington, Race 9, Shaconage... 2nd at 4-5 (xxx, 2.60, 2.10).

We now have six months of Best Bet plays under our belt and it seems like a good time to take a moment to reflect and see how well we have done with our little experiment. And at this point we can only label the results a resounding success.

The complete scorecard -- with monthly totals and week-by-week archive -- is listed below, but to briefly sum up:

We listed 99 total plays (96 horses to play in the win position plus three "additional" plays) and managed a phenomenal 91% ROI! Looking strictly at our "win" plays we still had an incredible 63% ROI.

Scrolling down to the month of May you'll see Giacomo was listed among our plays -- and being a typical horse-player I'm as skeptical as the rest, so I know folks will look at that gaudy $100+ win mutuel and wonder if we still would have landed in the black without it. Well, certainly a score that big will affect the final numbers significantly, but even if we remove the Giacomo play from our scorecard we hold our own with a very respectable 11% ROI in the win category.

Looking at our win and in-the-money numbers for those 96 Best Bets, we ended up picking winners at over 30% while our selections wound up in-the-money at a 66% rate.

Overall then we can only feel extremely pleased with the results thus far and we look forward to continuing Best Bets and hope to maintain our current level of success...

Belmont, Race 9, Rove... Moved to main track. No play.
Monmouth, Race 7, Aesculus... Moved to main track. No play.
Delaware, Race 8, Omeya/Spring Season... Moved to main track. No play.

6/11/05

Belmont, Race 4, Storm Minstrel... Scratched.
Belmont, Race 10, America Alive... 8th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 11, Giacomo... 7th at 5-1.
Belmont, Race 12, Smart Growth... Scratched.
Monmouth, Race 10, Cacht Wells... 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 9, Atlas Valley... 4th at 9-2.

6/18/05

Churchill, Race 3, Don'tcussthefiddle... 12th at 8-1
Churchill, Race 6, Gun Salute... 3rd at 8-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Churchill, Race 8, Rich in Spirit... WON (6.40, 3.20, 2.40).
Hollywood, Race 7, Me My Mine... WON (7.40, 4.40, 2.80).

6/25/05

Belmont, Race 9, Aaron's Classic... 2nd @ 8-5 (xxx, 3.80, 3.20)
Monmouth, Race 4, Dowry... WON (5.40, 3.40, 2.80).
Churchill, Race 3, Storm Thief... 4th at 8-5.
Churchill, Race 6, Key West Breeze... WON (3.60, 2.60, 2.20).
Churchill, Race 7, General Jumbo... 3rd at 2-1.
Delaware, Race 8, Seeking Slew... WON (14.80, 5.20, 4.80).
Colonial, Race 10, Classic Campaign... 4th at 9-2.
Hollywood, Race 4, Movie Buff... 4th at 3-1.

Churchill, Race 6, Dance Daily... 5th at 4-1
Churchill, Race 9, America Alive... WON (37.60, 13.60, 7.60).
Churchill, Race 10, Afleet Alex... 3rd at 9-2 (xxx, xxx, 4.60)
Churchill, Race 10, WPS on Giacomo.... WON (102.60, 45.80, 19.80).
Hollywood, Race 8, Quero Quero... 7th at 9-2

5/14/05

Belmont, Race 8, Forty Moves... 4th at 10-1.
Monmouth, Race 4, Nophone... 8th at 9-2.
Monmouth, Race 9, L Argento... 8th at 7-2.
Lone Star, Race 9, Shamoan... 2nd at 19-1 (xxx, 16.60, 9.20).
Hollywood, Race 6, Deputy Lad... 8th at 7-1.

5/21/05

Belmont, Race 7, Beautiful Bay... WON (8.00, 4.70, 3.90).
Belmont, Race 9, Landslide... 3rd at 6-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.40).
Delaware, Race 8, Fortress Hill... 2nd at 6-5 (xxx, 3.60, 2.40).
Pimlico, Race 12, Giacomo... 3rd at 6-1 (xxx, xxx, 4.80).

5/28/05

Calder, Race 7, Lord Robyn... 4th at 8-5.
Hollywood, Race 6, Nyramba... 6th at 3-1.
Hollywood, Race 8, Sunny Sky... 6th at 8-1.

Gulfstream, Race 11, Unigold... 7th at 5-1.
Gulfstream, Race 13, Full Flow... 2nd at 2-1 (xxx, 3.60, 2.80).
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 7, Cullen... 3rd @ 6-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.40).
Oaklawn, Race 10, Savorthetime... WON (2.60, 2.20, 2.20).

4/9/05

Keeneland, Race 1, Hasslefree... 2nd at 5-2 (xxx, 3.80, 3.40).
Keeneland, Race 9, Letgomyecho... 5th at 9-2.
Keeneland, Race 10, On the Acorn... WON (8.00, 4.40, 3.20).
Aqueduct, Race 9, Survivalist... 2nd at 5-1 (xxx, 6.10, 5.00).
Santa Anita, Race 6, Giacomo... 4th at 7-2.

4/16/05

Keeneland, Race 9, Bandini... WON (8.00, 3.80, 3.20).
Santa Anita 2. Shamoan... 3rd at 6-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).

4/23/05

Keeneland, Race 9, Coin Silver... WON (28.80, 10.00, 5.60).
Keeneland, Race 10, Argento... Scratched.
Pimlico, Race 8, Byanosejoe... 3rd at 3-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.20).
Bay Meadows, Race 7, Castledale... WON (5.00, 3.20, 2.60).
Hollywood, Race 8, Mea Domina... 4th at 1-1.

4/30/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Survivalist... 5th at 3-1.
Churchill, Race 6, Sagitta Ra... 3rd at 3-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).
Churchill, Race 9, McKee's Gallery... 8th at 7-2.
Churchill, Race 11, Vicarage... 3rd at 2-1.
Calder, Race 11, Wend... WON (3.40, 3.00, 2.40).

Laurel, Race 10, Distinctive Trick... 2nd at 2-1 (xxx, 3.40, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Mr Sulu... WON (4.80, 3.20, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 10, Betnow... WON (3.40, 2.10, 2.10).
Gulfstream, Race 12, Holy Panache... Scratched.

3/12/05

Fair Grounds, Race 2, Mr Malaprop... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.20).
Fair Grounds, Race 6, Vicarage... 2nd at 21-1 (xxx, 16.80, 9.80).
Santa Anita, Race 3, Memorette... Scratched.

3/19/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Alfonsina... Ran 3rd at 1-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Tampa Bay Race 9, Snowdrops... Ran 4th @ 3-5.
Tampa Bay, Race 10, Sun King... WON... (2.10, 2.10, 2.10).
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Crimson Stag... 8th at 1-1
Santa Anita, Race 5, Shamoan... 3rd at 20-1 (xxx, xxx, 9.60)

3/26/05

Gulfstream, Race 6, Exacta -- Isola Piu Bella over Pampered Princess... Ran 2-3.
Gulfstream, Race 10, Tadreeb... 2nd by a nose at 4-5 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
Turfway, Race 9, Magna Graduate... 4th at 5-1.
Fair Grounds, Race 8, Volobee... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 3.00).
Santa Anita, Race 9, High Standards... WON (6.40, 3.80, 2.60).

Aqueduct, Race 8, Bank Audit... 2nd at 1-2 (xxx, 2.60, 2.10).
Gulfstream, Race 5, Devil At Sea... 5th at 5-1
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Flagler... 4th at 5-1.
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Souris... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.10).

2/12/05

Aqueduct, Race 8, Naughty New Yorker... 2nd at 7-2 (xxx, 5.00, 4.80)
Gulfstream, Race 10, Angela's Love... 2nd @ 2-1 (xxx, 3.80, 3.00)
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Enduring Will... 3rd @ 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60)

2/19/05

Gulfstream, Race 11, Baena... Ran 3rd at 2-1 (xxx, xxx, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Prince of a Deal... Race moved off turf.
Fair Grounds, Race 9, May Gator... Ran 6th at 9-2.

2/26/05

Tampa, Race 8, Delta Princess... WON (6.40, 3.80, 2.80)
Tampa, Race 10, Andromeda's Hero... WON (5.60, 3.60, 2.80)
Oaklawn, Race 9, Souris... WON (3.40, 2.60, 2.20)

Calder, Race 9, Exceptional Ride... Ran 9th at 2-1
Calder, Race 10, Dansetta Light... WON (6.60, 3.00, 2.20)

1/8/05

Gulfstream, Race 3, Hold a Moonbeam... Ran 9th at 9-2.
Gulfstream, Race 5, Devil At Sea... Ran 2nd by a half at 9-1 (xxx, 8.00, 7.00).
Pimlico, Race 8, Maysville... Won but DQ'd to 2nd at 7-5 (xxx, 3.20, 2.60).
Fair Grounds, Race 8, Crimson Stag... WON at 4-5 (3.80, 2.80, 2.10)

1/15/05

Gulfstream, Race 9, Mogador... Scratched. Off turf.
Fair Grounds, Race 7, Punch Appeal... Ran 3rd at 2-5 (xxx, xxx, 2.10).
Fair Grounds, Race 8, America Alive... WON (8.20, 4.20, 3.20).
Santa Anita, Race 7, Imperialism... Ran 4th at 5-2.
Santa Anita, Race 8, Chattahoochee War... WON (5.00, 3.40, 2.60).

1/22/05

Gulfstream, Race 8, Mogador... 2nd by a neck at 4-5 (xxx, 2.80, 2.40).
Fair Grounds, Race 5, Chauffe Au Rouge... 2nd by a nose at 3-1 (xxx, 3.40, 3.00).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Shadow Cast... WON (5.20, 3.20, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 5, Hortense... Ran 2nd by 1 1/2 at 3-2 (xxx, 2.80, 2.60).

1/29/05

Laurel, Race 10, Silmaril... WON (3.60, 2.60, 2.20).
Fair Grounds, Race 9, Cape Hope... Scratched.
Santa Anita, Race 5, Silver Tree... 3rd at 5-2 (xxx, xxx, 2.80).
Santa Anita, Race 6, Yearly Report... 6th at 4-5.

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